The Spring Break Effect

Contract activity in the Metro DC area from April 13 to 19, 2025, was down 8.0% compared to the same seven-day period last year.

Key Takeaways

• Every public school system in the six jurisdictions we track had its spring break last week, and that was not the case this time last year. We fully expected a decline, but the drop was actually less than we thought it might be.
• Surprisingly, Prince William County had a healthy 14.7% increase in the number of newly ratified contracts.
• Despite spring break, there were still over 1,200 homes that went under contract last week, and they sold almost as quickly as they did last year. The average days on market this past week was 24.3 days, favorably comparing to the 23.1 days figure a year ago.

Why it Matters

• Despite the completely normal week-to-week changes, there are a couple of consistent and important trends.
• The market for homes priced over $750,000 continues to be remarkably strong, with year-to-date contracts up 5%.  Conversely, the first-time homebuyer market is still hampered by too-high mortgage rates and high prices, so contract activity under $750,000 is off 8%.  (It’s also astounding that we’re talking about homes price below $750K are “entry-level”!)
• Anxiety over federal employment is real, and it is undeniable that some buyers and sellers have hit the pause button until there is a little more clarity about what the future holds.